Saturday, February 11, 2012

The Cold Sobering Truth

The margin for error is so small.                                                            

I mean
one half step too late or too early
you don't quite make it.
One half second too slow or too fast
and you don't quite catch it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in every break of the game
every minute, every second.

Inches; that’s all that separated the New England Patriots from beating the New York Giants in the super bowl, avenging their championship loss against them from four years ago, and placing them as perhaps the greatest dynasty of all time (four super bowls in ten years).

I'll tell you this
in any fight
it is the guy who is willing to die
And I know if I am going to have any life anymore
it is because, I am still willing to fight, and die for that inch
because that is what living is.
The six inches in front of your face.

This message came from Al Pacino during one of his late 90’s films, Any Given Sunday. Oliver Stone’s film, an overdramatized picture about a football league that seemed to serve as an inspiration to Vince McMahon’s now defunct, XFL. In other words, I enjoyed it, but many critics did not.

Pacino’s speech before the team's championship game serves as one of the more inspirational speeches to come from any movie (really, I dare you to try and not get any goose bumps).

The Giants wanted that inch. We can talk about Gronk’s injury affecting his play (he was rendered useless the entire game), the fumbles that didn’t bounce the Patriots way, and you can even question the legitimacy of the safety call on Brady (who’s to say one of his receivers ran the wrong route). Despite these gripes and concerns, it was the Giants who deserved to win the game in the end.

The most difficult part to grasp from this game as a Patriots fan is that from a coaching perspective we executed the game plan. Keeping two safeties about 30 yards back at all times, the Patriots were able to keep everything in front of them. Eli Manning played an extraordinary game, yet the Patriots were able to hold off a high-powered Giants offense for most of the game. Despite the Giants nearly doubling the Patriots in time-of-possession for the entire game, New York only managed 21 points against the much maligned New England defense (19 if you count Brady’s safety).

Secondly, the Patriots offensive line was able to hold off the freakish defensive line of the Giants for the majority of the game. My bare boned prediction heading into the super bowl was that if the New England offensive line was able to keep Brady upright, then Tom was going to pick apart the suspect Giant secondary. The thought of Brady having a subpar game with an ample amount of time in the pocket never crossed my mind. Heck, when was the last time Brady had two bad games in a row? This was his game to have; the revenge factor was off the charts, and the stakes were so high that Brady couldn’t fail.

As a society, there is always the need to place blame on someone or something. A team can win collectively, yet it can never lose that way. That’s unfortunate for Wes Welker. After a 123-catch season, Welker was rendered the “goat” of the game after dropping a difficult yet catchable ball.

We’ve all seen the play countless times. Brady and Welker both saw something in the defense, and Welker ran an in-seam streak down the hash mark of the field. Now, this type of route typically requires a lower line drive of a throw, not the high arching one that Brady threw. The ball was also thrown to Welker’s back left shoulder, making it increasingly difficult for someone going full speed. The ball hit Welker in the hands as he was contorting his body, and the rest is history. Both players failed to execute a play that was performed flawlessly all year long.

The play certainly wouldn’t have cemented a Patriots victory, but it certainly would have helped.

The Patriots, as a team, lost the game: The three fumbles that the Patriots failed to corral; the one fumble they recovered, but was offset by a 12-men on the field penalty; Rob Ninkonvich’s offside penalty on third down; Brady’s safety; Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch dropping passes; Gronkowski’s ankle; the team abandoning the running game; Bill Belichick not letting the Giants score sooner. The reasons for losing stick in your head and are engraved as memories you’ll have for the rest of my life.

I’ll always remember Asante Samuel dropping an easy interception and Rodney Harrison going up in the air with David Tyree, and I’ll always remember Manning to Manningham (the 38-yard throw was the Giants longest of the game), as well as Welker dropping that pass.

As Patriots fans, we’ve become blinded by success and illuminated by failure. Fans in Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, and countless other cities could care less about our “failures”. New England has been to five super bowls in the past 11 seasons, winning three and losing two. They have a great shot at going again next year.

Like Pacino philosophized about during his speech, the game comes down to inches. If Gronk’s ankle was ok, he probably catches the hail mary at the end of the game. If the ball hits the turf a bit differently one of those times, the Patriots end up with a fumble. If Manning’s pass to Manningham is just the slightest bit off, the pass doesn’t connect. And if Brady throws the pass differently, or if Welker contorts his body a bit sooner or later, the Patriots probably come out of the game as champs.

Instead, Welker, his teammates, and New England diehards everywhere are left with a cold shower feeling. The Giants have our number in the cruelest of games. Hey, there’s always next season.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

We Can Do This!

As I type this I can't help but fret about Sunday's rematch between the New England Patriots and New York Giants.  I worry about the Giants relentless pass rush; Rob Gronkowski (an indespensable component on offense) and his high ankle sprain; and the Patriots patch work secondary against a high powered offense.
Despite these potential hazards, I remain calm when I realize the Patriots two greatest strengths can overcome the most difficult of situations.
With their fifth super bowl appearance as a quarterback-coach tandem, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will set a new mark for other's to follow.  The more important record, super bowl wins, still lies ahead for the devouted duo.  They trail Terry Bradshaw and Chuck Knoll of the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as one of Brady's boyhood idols - Joe Montana - who each have four super bowl victories.
Since winning the big game in '01,'03, and '04, Brady and Belichick have gone a pedestrian 6-5 in the postseason.  Not terrible, yet nothing that resembles the dominance the Patriots once exhibited against opponents.   
Perhaps the league has caught up to the Patriots.

While the league has evolved at a rapid pace, as where teams used to place a premium on lead running backs and dominant defenses, now the upmost important position is that of the quarterback.  With this transition seemingly taking place overnight, the Patriots (along with everyone else) were forced to adapt.  With an aging and overvalued defense (looking at you Asante Samuel), New England was forced to overhaul. 
On top of revamping the team as a whole, Brady had to battle back from missing the entire 2008 season.  After a subpar 2009 season for Brady (28 TD's; 13 INT's), he put up one of the great statistical seasons of all time in 2010 (36 TD's; 4 INT's).
The gaudy statistics didn't matter in the end, as New England fell at home to the ultra-hated New York Jets, an underdog, and a team that the Patriots beat at home earlier in the season, 45-3.
The coach/quarterback duo, who could not be more opposite on the outside, yet so similarly hard-wired, are due for a masterpiece.  Teams and dynasties have gone through similar title draughts.  Heck, Joe Montana went through a three game postseason losing streak in which he threw zero touchdowns.
Ask yourself this when thinking about Sunday's game: When's the last time Tom Brady had two bad games in a row?

Now, on to the matchups.

Quarterback: Slight Edge to Brady
New England: Tom Brady
New York: Eli Manning

Eli Manning has no doubt established himself as an elite quarterback, joining Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger.  He's won playoff games at home, on the road, in the freezing cold, and in driving rain.  He'll throw up improbable balls that somehow make it into a receivers hand, and he'll do it in the biggest spots.  Let's not forget what Tom Brady has done as a quarterback in the past, not to mention his 6-TD performance against Denver this postseason.  Simply, Brady lives for these moments.

Running back: Edge to Giants
New England: BenJarvus Green-Ellis; Danny Woodhead; Kevin Faulk
New York: Ahmad Bradshaw; Brandon Jacobs; D.J. Ware

Bradshaw has the big play ability to turn the tide in games, as well as the power to handle inside handoffs.  His partner in crime - Jacobs - can simply wear out a defense with his hammerhead style.  Green-Ellis is steady, yet rarely breaks big gains.  Woodhead has been quite solid this year as one of New England's rotated running backs.  Faulk is their best blocking running back, and the teams longest tenured player.

Wide receiver: Edge to Giants
New England: Wes Welker; Deion Branch; Julian Edelman; Chad Ocho Cinco
New York: Hakeem Nicks; Victor Cruz; Mario Manningham; Devin Thomas

When New Englands secondary is on the field, halting the Giants high-powered offensive aerial attack will be a key to victory.  Nicks and Cruz have emerged as two of the best in the game, and Manningham is no slouch either.  Wide receiver/defensive back/punt returner Julian Edelman will most likely be assigned to one of the three, so that matchup certainly bears monitoring.  Welker is the best slot receiver around, and a target that Brady has found comforting for some time.  With Gronkowski's potential limited ability, one of the other receivers besides Welker will have to step up.  A touchdown catch would certainly do Ocho Cinco wonders with Patriots teammates and fans alike.

Tight end: Edge to Patriots
New England: Rob Gronkowski; Aaron Hernandez
New York: Jake Ballard; Travis Beckum

When healthy, Gronkowski is the most complete tight end in the NFL.  His pass catching and blocking ability, on top of his size and strength in the red zone, has struck fear in defense's everywhere.  Often overlooked, Hernandez has nearly become just as vital as Gronkowski has to the teams success.  With wide receiver speed, tight end size, and freakish athletic ability, Hernandez may play the biggest role come Sunday.  Ballard is often overlooked because of who he plays with, and the fact that he is as slow as dirt.  The Patriots, however, can't let that fool them.  An undrafted rookie out of Ohio State, Ballard can slip past defenses and is a load to take down.  His touchdown catch between these two teams in the regular season proved to be the game winner.

Offensive line: Edge to Patriots
New England: Matt Light; Logan Mankins; Dan Connolly; Brian Waters; Nate Solder; Ryan Wendell; Sebastian Vollmer
New York: David Diehl; Kevin Boothe; David Baas; Chris Snee; Kareem McKenzie; Tony Ugoh

I am a bit unfamiliar with the Giants offensive line, but after watching the 49ers pummel Manning two weeks ago, this could possibly be a weak spot on the team.  The Patriots, meanwhile have one of the best line's in the league.  They allowed one sack and limited pressure against a physical Ravens team the AFC Championship.  Matt Light may be having one of his best season's yet, and rookie Nate Solder has been quite the find.  Solder, along with Vollmer (who has been hurt for nearly half of the regular season) will be vital in protecting Brady from the pass rush.

Defensive line: Edge to Giants
New England: Vince Wilfork; Kyle Love; Mark Anderson; Brandon Deaderick; Gerard Warren; Shaun Ellis
New York: Jason Pierre-Paul; Justin Tuck; Osi Umenyiora; Chris Canty; Linval Joseph; Rocky Bernard

In perhaps the games biggest matchup, the Giants pass rush against the Patriots offensive line could decide the final outcome of the game.  Pierre-Paul has already distinguished himself as one of the most feared defensive players in the league.  Umenyiora and Tuck are still wildly effective, with this being their second super bowl matchup against the Patriots.  Canty's toughness adds another weapon to an already dangerous unit.  New Englands line has been wildly underrated, particularly after getting rid of space eater Albert Haynseworth earlier in the season. Wilfork's efforts against Baltimore saved the season.  Anderson has been the team's best pass rusher since Andre Carter was lost for the season.

Linebacker: Edge to Patriots
New England: Jerod Mayo; Brandon Spikes; Rob Ninkovich; Dane Fletcher; Tracy White
New York: Mathias Kiwanuka; Michael Boley; Chase Blackburn; Jacquian Williams; Greg Jones

Mayo, a captain and one of the two rocks on defense (Wilfork is the other), makes the difference between the two units.  He is a sound tackler who always finds himself in the right place.  Spikes has emerged this postseason as a difference maker on defense, and Ninkovich seems to come up with a few difference making plays per game.  When not on the line, Anderson often lines up as an outside pass rusher.  Boley is cut in a similar mold to Antonio Pierce, the team's strong middle linebacker in 2007.  Kiwanuka is a very versatile force, and will certainly be a target from the Patriots offensive line.

Secondary: Edge to Giants
New England: Patrick Chung; Kyle Arrington; Devin McCourty; James Ihedigbo; Sterling Moore; Julian Edelman; Antwaun Molden
New York: Corey Webster; Antrel Rolle; Kenny Phillips; Aaron Ross; Deon Grant; Prince Amukamara

The New England secondary is a unit that is often times laughed at, but I've seen flashes from this team that suggest it can be a strength and not a weakness.  They have shut opponents down (usually after giving up points), and have created havoc by bringing ill-timed blitzes.  As a unit, they are very good tacklers.  Arrington has distanced himself from McCourty as the team's shutdown corner, and Chung brings the boom similar to what Spikes does.  Statistically New York has given up more points than New England (400;342), with the secondary often bearing the brunt of the criticism.  Webster has shown flashes as a very good corner, and there is no doubting that Rolle and Phillips have immense talent and athletic ability.  Because of its cohesiveness during the entire season, the Giants receive the nod.

Special Teams: Edge to New England
New England: Stephen Gostkowski; Zoltan Mesko; Julian Edelman
New York: Lawrence Tynes; Steve Weatherford; Will Blackmon

The Patriots have excelled as a special teams unit this season, one of a trademarks for a Belichick coached team.  Gostkowski is solid and reliable, and Mesko has become a top punter in the league.  Edelman returned one for a touchdown this year and has averaged more than 10 yards per return.  Tynes has proved to be one of the most clutch kickers in the league.  The unit, however, has been rather shaky this season.

Coach: Edge to New England
New England: Bill Belichick
New York: Tom Coughlin

Coughlin seems to get overlooked every year, particularly in the New York media.  Questions abound about whether he will get fired, overlooking the fact that he has never deserved to get fired during his time in New York.  It is perplexing, however, that his teams season's often result in a roller coaster ride.  It ended up working in 2007, and has worked thus far in 2011.  A defensive whiz, Belichick has proven time and time again that he is the barometer to which other coaches must measure up to.  Two things impress me the most with Belichick: His ability to put his players in the best possible position to succeed.  And secondly, his in game adjustments are second to none.

Final Prediction: Patriots 34; Giants 31
The Patriots will win because of the effectiveness of its offensive line, and the willingness of Tom Brady.  There is so much on the line for both teams, but more particularly for the Patriots.  After the Giants left a bitter taste in Brady's mouth in 2007, he will not be shut down again.  The Patriots will also force a big turnover in a game where one turnover can make all the difference.