More than one-quarter of a way through the 2012 Major League Baseball season, there have been an ample amount of surprises. The four teams with the highest payroll this season – Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, in that order – own a combined record of 98-94. Baseball’s prized free agent acquisition and the Angels $240 million dollar man, Albert Pujols, is currently on pace for his worst statistical season of all time. Boston’s big free agent pickup last season (take a guess, it’s not Carl Crawford), Adrian Gonzalez, has an OPS of .749, his worst since 2005 when he was a part time player with Texas.
Mariano Rivera, the game’s all-time greatest closer (and someone who is not a human being), went on the season-ending disabled list after tearing his ACL shagging fly balls in the outfield of Kansas City’s Kaufmann Stadium. This was supposed to be Rivera’s swan song; instead, he will attempt to battle back at the ripe age of 42 to take the mound next season at Yankee Stadium.
Speaking of injuries, the Philadelphia Phillies look like a battered and bruised bunch. Jimmy Rollins is batting .225 on the season, Ty Wigginton and Freddy Galvis have replaced the Ryan Howard/Chase Utley combo (Utley may never be the same, no matter when he comes back), and Roy Halladay exited his previous start with shoulder soreness after two innings.
On the other side of the diamond, the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers – two teams who had minimal expectations entering the season – are restoring some luster and excitement for two baseball hungry cities. The Orioles have succeeded due to their young stars – Matt Weiters, J.J. Hardy, and Adam Jones – emerging as big time players, as well as a bullpen full of scrap heaps help bring down a team ERA of 3.54.
Led by all-stud Matt Kemp, the Dodgers have stunned the city of angels with the best record in the major leagues thus far. Andre Ethier has had a resurgence of sorts just in time for his free agency turn, and the promotion of 31 year old A.J. Ellis to full time catcher has proved dividends. Los Angeles may have the best position player-pitcher combo in the game in ace Clayton Kershaw and the aforementioned Kemp.
Perhaps we are seeing a fundamental shift in how teams will operate in the future, more specifically, valuing the development of younger players and not overpaying for aging talent.
The Nationals and Rays have taken that approach (minus the Nats’ ridiculous deal to Jayson Werth). The Rays have placed a premium on young pitching, cheap free agent options, and building around a few position players. Meanwhile, the Nationals lucked out by nabbing superstars in the making, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in the draft, and building one of the best starting rotations in the majors through the acquisitions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, and the continued emergence of Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.
Even the managers – Joe Maddon and Davey Johnson – have brought a stability and easy going style that has translated into success for both ball clubs.
There may be more to building a successful team than simply throwing dollars at the next “big” free agent, particularly if that free agent is on the wrong side of 30. We’ve seen it with the highest paid clubs; Adrian Gonzalez with the Red Sox, Mark Teixeira with the Yankees, Albert Pujols with the Angels, and Ryan Howard with the Phillies.
Let’s see if the Orioles, Dodgers, Rays, and Nationals can hold their ground this season.
Five Up/Five Down: Here my five biggest surprises and five biggest disappointments thus far this season.
Surprises
Josh Hamilton – Far and away the league leader in homeruns with 20, and sporting an absurd OPS of 1.175, Hamilton is having the best possible start to a contract year that
someone can possibly have. One has to worry about his health (he’s only played in more than 133 games once in five years) and the toll that playing center field in the sweltering summer heat of Texas will do to his body. In the meantime, sit back and marvel at the leading MVP candidate.
Brandon Beachy – The Braves sure do know how to find good pitching, don’t they? While the rest of the rotation has been up and down a bit this season, Beachy is sporting a nice 1.77 ERA as a starter. The Braves signed the undrafted free agent from Indiana Wesleyan University in 2008, and thrust him into the starting rotation last year, where he started 25 games and posted a respectable 3.68 ERA. In a difficult NL East, the Braves will need everything that the young Beachy has this season.
Paul Konerko – Not that anything resembling 30 homeruns, 100 RBIs, and a .300 batting average is ever a shock at the end of the season, it’s the amazing anonymity that Konerko operates under. Konerko is hitting .395 on the season, repeat .395; this coming from a 36 year old often overlooked by bigger names at first base. The White Sox have played above expectations this season, thanks in due part to Konerko.
Gio Gonzalez – I certainly thought Gonzalez was good, but perhaps not this good. Currently leading the majors in strikeouts with 79, Gonzalez is leading the surprise first place Nationals with a 2.04 ERA. Also leading the league in H/9 (hits per nine innings), Gonzalez has put to rest any concerns the Nationals had about his control issues, as well as transitioning from Oakland to Washington.
Melky Cabrera – An incredible steal in the offseason for the Giants (Jonathan Sanchez’s injuries and inconsistencies were maddening), the overlooked outfielder is leading the league in hits, thus far. With an OBP over .400, and somehow still just 27 years old, Cabrera should command the outfield in San Francisco for the foreseeable future.
Disappointments
Albert Pujols – As mentioned above, Pujols is experiencing the worst start to any of his 12 seasons. Not only is he hitting .232, he’s not getting on base (13 walks in 212 plate appearances), and his usual power has been absent (just seven homeruns through 49 games). Pujols has another 10 years in Los Angeles, so Angels fans should get used to seeing Albert in the lineup, regardless of how he is performing.
Rickie Weeks – With Prince Fielder gone from Milwaukee, Weeks was supposed to help pickup a lot of the production that Fielder took with him to Detroit. Instead, Weeks has arguably been one of the worst players in the league this season. Second in the league with 62 whiffs, Weeks has hit a putrid .156 this season. With a mere 26 hits through 48 games, Weeks has not helped a Brewers team expected to contend this season.
Tim Lincecum – Perhaps the innings and aggressive throwing have caught up to Lincecum and his diminutive frame, but he is experiencing a year no one could have expected. Sporting a hideous 6.41 ERA and a walk rate that keeps on climbing, it has been noted that his velocity has been down this year to a fastball that reaches 90 miles per hour. The Giants need Lincecum to be better if they want to even contend for a wild card spot.
Geovany Soto – It was just a few years ago that the catcher from Puerto Rico earned an all-star bid and a rookie of the year award. Since his breakout campaign in 2008, Soto’s stock has consistently worsened. After hitting .228 in 125 games last season, Soto has hit .161 in a mere 28 games played, and is currently on the disabled list. One has to wonder whether the young Cubs will feature the 29 year old Soto as its catcher of the future.
Heath Bell – Buyer beware; never overpay for a closer, especially one who found success in San Diego’s pitching haven, and one who has battled weight issues his career. After the Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle signings, Bell was the closer that would complete the Miami Marlins massive overhaul. Instead, Bell has floundered to the point that Ozzie Guillen has removed him from save situations (although Bell remains the closer, according to Guillen). Nearly allowing a run per inning (16 in 18 innings pitched), Bell’s $27 million dollar deal is looking uglier than the Marlins uniforms right now.