Fearless Predictions for a Frightening Season

The 2012 Boston Red Sox season has been tumultuous to say the least, and according to numerous baseball sources, the clubhouse could erupt into disarray at any moment.  If we haven’t witnessed “disarray” yet during one of the most agonizing seasons in recent memory, one has to wonder how these next few months will play out. 

A mishap between Manager Bobby Valentine and third baseman Will Middlebrooks recently surfaced to the media.  Valentine made a comment to Middlebrooks earlier in the season after the rookie committed a couple of errors; essentially teasing Middlebrooks in a playful manner.  Someone or someone’s went behind Valentine’s back to upper management, voicing their displeasure about the much maligned manager. 

To say that Valentine has zero control over the team is like saying ESPN Analyst Buster Olney and Valentine have a rocky relationship; it’s extremely evident.  From comments about Mike Aviles, to Kevin Youkilis, to Carl Crawford, Valentine has routinely set himself apart from his players this season.  No wonder the team is treading water at 53-53, and despite being just four games back from a wild card spot, the team’s collective malaise offers little hope for postseason play at Fenway this season.

Here are a few fearless predictions going forward:

- Bobby Valentine fails to last the rest of the season

This season reminds a bit of the disastrous 2001 season and a roster filled with overpaid stiffs (Jose Offerman, Mike Lansing, Bret Saberhagen), and a middling manager (Jimy Williams).  The difference being that the 2012 team is far and away more talented than that squad, and there is clear disdain between everyone and Valentine, whereas the main turmoil involving Williams was solely between him and ownership.

Valentine has done his best job of getting fired, showing an outright arrogance during press conferences, and recently shouting, “I’m not trying to get fired”, behind Boston Globe writer Dan Shaughnessy as he was doing pregame television work.  The comments uttered seemed to extract opposite feelings.  What manager of a major league baseball team says that to the national media (in Boston, nonetheless) without the thought, ‘Heck, I may be out the door soon; Might as well make this fun’.  There’s no chance Valentine makes it to next season, so what’s stopping Red Sox ownership from pulling the plug on the Bobby V. experiment?

- Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford get put on waivers; neither gets picked up

To say that Josh Beckett has turned into public enemy No.1 in Boston this season is highly remarkable considering who is manager is.  Beckett has accomplished this feat, distancing himself from the fans and media, all the while growing a third and fourth chin.  At 32, owed more than $30 million over the next two years, and showing awful durability issues, no other team is going to pick up his contract.

The Crawford case is one of the more frustrating one’s for the Red Sox.  He spent the previous decade terrorizing the Red Sox as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.  Now, he’s doing the same as a member of the Red Sox.  Count me as one of the few remaining members of the Carl Crawford Fan Club.  I was ecstatic over the prospects that he could bring to this team and pairing his skills with Jacoby Ellsbury’s.  His speed, defense, and high contact rate with Tampa should have translated into success in Boston.  Instead, his speed has gone to little use, his defense has been above average at best (his elbow will probably need Tommy John Surgery), and his on-base percentage continues to hover below .300.  One team I could see making the plunge and obtaining Crawford’s services would be the Miami Marlins.  They already overpaid for a trio of free agents this offseason, and is a team continually looking to make a splash (no pun intended).  Their production out of left field has been minimal, and the new stadium caters more to Crawford’s gap-hitting game.

- Ryan Lavarnway steals starts at catcher

Whether Lavarnway takes time away from Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Kelly Shoppach remains to be seen, but it is clear that the Red Sox think something of the 24 year old prospect.  “Salty” is arbitration eligible for next season, and can become a free agent in 2014.  At 27, he should be hitting the peak of his catching career.  While twenty homeruns through 83 games thus far is a good sign, his strikeout to walk ratio is atrocious, as well as his on base percentage.  Shoppach remains an insurance policy, and a solid back up for any team.  One has to wonder why the Red Sox didn’t part with him at the trade deadline.  Lavarnway at least presents the team with some flexibility going forward as a catcher/DH.

- Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Lester make some fans forget about their disappointing seasons

Let me preface this by saying that Lester and Gonzalez are upper echelon players when healthy and right.  This season, however, they have not.  Lester, still just 28 and left-handed, has shown decreased velocity and less control this season than in years past.  He still has the ability to be an even better pitcher than he was before this season.  He’s only thrown more than 200 innings three times in his career, and while his velocity is down a bit, his game should not be predicated on how fast he throws.  Even when his fastball topped out at 95MPH, it was his location and willingness to use a full arsenal and both sides of the plate that helped him succeed.  Final Pitching Line Prediction: 11-11 4.50ERA.

If you look at Gonzalez’s numbers as a whole this season, they don’t look too bad: .302BA 10HR 62RBI through 104 games.  The alarming statistic – 10 homeruns – indicates that even though he’s playing in a ballpark catered to his swing, his power numbers are his worst since he became a full time player in 2006.  What’s even more astounding is that he used to do his work in cavernous Petco Park in San Diego.  Fearless prediction the rest of the way: .310BA 20HR 102RBI.